🔗 Share this article

The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.