Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza Yet Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.